A report released Tuesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies warns that the human toll of Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to mount at an unprecedented rate, with combined casualties on both sides potentially reaching 2 million by spring 2026.
The Washington-based think tank estimates that Russia has sustained approximately 1.2 million casualties since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022, including between 275,000 and 325,000 battlefield deaths. Ukrainian forces have suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths, according to the analysis.
The report’s authors describe Russia’s losses as extraordinary by historical standards, noting that no major military power has experienced such casualty rates since World War II. Russian casualties in Ukraine are more than five times higher than all Russian and Soviet losses combined from wars since 1945, including the Afghanistan conflict and two Chechen wars.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the World Economic Forum earlier this month that Moscow lost approximately 1,000 troops per day in December alone.
Despite these substantial losses, Russian territorial gains have been minimal. The report found that Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 49 and 230 feet per day in their most prominent offensives since early 2024. Russia has increased its control of Ukrainian territory by approximately 12 percent since 2022, according to CSIS data.
The report challenges assumptions about an inevitable Russian victory, with authors stating that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal territorial gains. From late February 2024 to early January 2026, Russian forces advancing toward the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk moved just under 50 kilometers, at an average pace of approximately 70 meters per day.
Neither Moscow nor Kyiv releases detailed figures for combat casualties, and each government emphasizes the other side’s losses while downplaying its own. Russia has publicly acknowledged only slightly over 6,000 soldier deaths since the invasion began, a figure that has not been updated since September 2022.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the CSIS report as unreliable on Wednesday, stating that only Russia’s Ministry of Defense is authorized to provide information on military losses.
The CSIS analysis compiled data from multiple sources, including independent Russian news outlet Mediazona working with BBC, estimates from the British government, and interviews with state officials. Mediazona and its volunteers have documented the names of more than 160,000 Russian troops killed by reviewing news reports, social media posts, and government websites.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in a February 2025 interview that more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the war began. There was no immediate comment from the Ukrainian government on the new CSIS estimates.
The conflict continues to exact a heavy toll on civilians as well. A United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission report published earlier this month found that civilian casualties in Ukraine increased 31 percent in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by intensified fighting along the front line and Russia’s expanded use of long-range weapons.
Wednesday, Ukrainian officials reported that two people were killed near Kyiv and at least nine others were injured in attacks across the country, as both sides continue to trade strikes nearly four years after Russia launched its invasion.
