NOAA’s October 2025 seasonal outlook places a patchwork of probabilities across the country for December–February, with the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes showing elevated chances of above-normal precipitation and pockets of below-normal temperatures. Those signals are consistent with a weak La Niña that the CPC says is likely to persist into the winter months before a transition toward ENSO-neutral conditions is possible in late winter or early spring.
Climate scientists and local forecasters caution that the seasonal maps show probabilities, not guaranteed daily outcomes. The outlook increases the odds of more frequent cold intrusions into the central and northern U.S. and a northward storm track that would bring extra precipitation to those regions, while steering many storms away from the southern tier where warmer-than-average conditions are favored.
Minnesota and the Upper Midwest are highlighted as one of the regions with the clearest tilt toward a cooler, wetter winter. National Weather Service offices in the region (including Duluth) released local outlooks noting a 33–50% chance of below-normal temperatures for portions of Minnesota and a similar slight tilt toward above-normal precipitation, although forecasters emphasize low confidence and substantial uncertainty in timing and storm tracks. Local officials say that outcome would increase the risk of lake-effect snow, earlier ski-season boosts in higher elevations and intermittent heavy snow or ice events when Arctic intrusions align with trackable storms.
For the southern U.S. — from the southern Plains through the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast — the CPC outlook shows a stronger probability of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. Climate writers and state forecasters are already warning of intensified drought stress and elevated wildfire risk in parts of the Southwest if the drier signal verifies. Officials note that even in a generally mild southern winter, abrupt cold snaps remain possible and can have outsized impacts when systems are not prepared for unexpected freezes.
Forecasters are also watching the polar vortex and Arctic circulation. A weakened or disrupted vortex increases the chance for short, sharp cold outbreaks across the central and eastern U.S., even when the season as a whole trends milder in the South. Seasonal outlook maps don’t predict individual nor’easters or blizzards — those remain the domain of shorter-range models and will be updated with greater precision as individual storms form.
Energy and transportation planners say a colder, snowier northern tier would mean higher heating demand and elevated risk of travel disruption from snow and ice; conversely, utilities in the South may expect less winter heating load but remain on alert for infrastructure stress during rare extreme events. NOAA will refresh its monthly outlooks and CPC will publish 30- and 90-day products that refine regional signals closer to December.
“A weak La Niña stacks the deck but does not write the playbook,” said a CPC forecaster in the agency’s October discussion, noting that the outlook increases odds rather than offering deterministic forecasts.
Minnesota / Upper Midwest forecast
NOAA’s regional guidance and local NWS offices place Minnesota among the states with the clearest tilt toward below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this winter — especially central and northwest Minnesota where probabilities of below-average temperatures are highest in the state outlooks (roughly 33–50% chance).
Local NWS briefs emphasize low confidence on exact timing, but say the risk of increased lake-effect snow and intermittent heavy-snow or ice events is elevated if Arctic air intrusions coincide with active storm tracks. Residents are advised to tune to local NWS updates for short-range storm forecasts and travel advisories.
